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chandrasekaran shiv

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Information Technology

Trends in the IT industry
11月5日

Comparing EBay, Amazon and Google Merchant Services

 You could sell used merchandise on both EBay and Amazon until now. With Google Base and Google Checkout, you can sell for less. Of course, web-traffic to Google Base is not as high as to Ebay or Amazon, so the probability of your selling stuff on Ebay or Amazon is greater than selling through Google Base.

Here’s a comparison of merchant services (based on a $25 book)

 

 EBay + Paypal

 Google Base + Checkout

 Amazon + Amazon Payments

Listing Fees

$1.20

Free, but

you can purchase adwords.

None

Site Commission + Payment charges

 

5.25% + 2.9% + $.30

2% + $.20

$1.20 + $.99 + 10%

Sale method –

Auction + Fixed price

Fixed price

Auction or Fixed Price

Payment method

Paypal

Checkout

Amazon Payments

Reputation management

3-point – Positive, Negative or neutral

Checkout has a 5-point scale – ratings not publicly available yet.

Rating on a 5-point scale

Dispute resolution

SquareTrade mediator

Available for $15 more

 

Paypal Dispute resolution

Google Checkout

A-to-Z Guarantee

Cost of a $25.00 book sale

$3.50

$.70

$4.69

API/Integration support

Yes

Yes

Yes

Services for high-volume sellers

Powersellers

None

Pro Merchant Services

 
As anyone who has used Google Base knows, the user interface is useful, but hideous and is unlikely to give a viewer a warm enough fuzzy feeling to buy anything. But then, Google Reader started as an uncoordinated ugly duckling to begin with, before it turned into a swan. Also, in addition, the "features, not products" mantra leads me to believe that Google Base is undergoing a major revamp, with tighter integration to checkout, video and mail. I also think that the Google Checkout process, which deals mainly with goods, will be more customizable in the future - and you will probably be able to change the workflow according to your requirements.  I am integrating checkout for a services offering and it would be very useful to us. 
 
Update: Google announced that they are waiving all fees for Google Checkout until the end of 2007, and they announced new features - a coupon creator and email invoice. For those who used the Google Checkout API to integrate - merchant coupon were available earlier, but the interactive version is now available to those less inclined towards programming.
 
Digg!

 

11月3日

Yellow pages and Local Search

I got rid of my yellow pages and phonebook a couple of years ago, but I still used to look up some addresses using Superpages and Whitepages. Now I rarely use any of those websites either preferring to “Google.” However, I recently looked at the Live Search ads on the Wall Street Journal and decided to give Live a try. Yahoo has also consistently been bringing out fantastic products and I tried their local search as well.

The top 3 search engines have built out comprehensive offerings, so I did a comparison of the various features.

 

Go to Google Maps Home

 Yahoo! Local

 More servicesLocal

Contact Information

P

P

P

Mashup with Maps

P

P

P

Filter by Categories/Tags

 

P

P

Reviews and ratings

 

P

 

Save Bookmark/ Social Bookmarking

 

P

P

Send to Phone

P

P

P

Click-to-Call

 

 

P

Look and feel

Utilitarian, with relevant features– like a Jeep

Has a lot of bells and whistles – like a BMW

Very pretty, but not used much – like a DeLorean.

With these features, and information accessible faster than opening a phonebook or navigating to the Whitepages url, why would anyone use or advertise on Yellow pages? It is obvious that these “disruptive technologies” are indeed being very disruptive to those companies, and it is very likely that the incumbents will do what most companies do when they suddenly face competition – they will try to mimic them, do that poorly and will eventually lose their ability to capture value.

Since gathering information about local businesses is a time-consuming process, and websites like Judy’s Book and Yelp have a head start in gathering this information, they offer a considerable value to a person looking for dry-cleaners in Seattle’s Fremont neighborhood, or the best Chinese takeout in New York’s Upper East site ( I personally use menupages.com to choose NYC restaurants). This should ideally ensure that these websites capture some of the value they have thus created.  

I said “ideally” in the previous sentence because of the assumption that no other entity could just copy the contents of Judy’s book or Yelp and offer it as their own. No other entity, unless they are a search engine! An action that is clearly a copyright violation for most other entities – is Fair-use for search engines!

So Google, Yahoo or MSN Live could easily display portions of local search results (including reviews from these sites). And if the copyright owners (Yelp or Judy’s book) object, search engines would stop indexing them altogether –making it harder if not impossible for customers to get access to this information, and a huge drop in traffic for these sites.

Let’s hope they “don’t be evil!”

Digg!

 

11月1日

Moving from blogger

I recently moved out of Blogger - Windows Live Spaces offers much more ... from http://infotech-strategy.blogspot.com/

Are railroad companies the next private equity target?

Private equity firms, with a significant amount of capital to invest, highly incentivized managers (in case of buyouts like Sungard), the ability to avoid the cost of being a publicly listed, and the opportunity to extract operational efficiencies - are all reasons for the increased number of buyouts by private equity firms.

Typically, private equity firms are attracted to industries with consistent cashflows, low volatility (beta less than 1) , low debt (Debt less than 50% of capital) and high dividends. The railroad industry ( BNI, NSC, UNP) fits right into this set of specifications, and their enterprise values (market value of debt + market value of equity) are in the $24bn - $30bn range, an size that a consortium of PE firms can easily digest.

In addition, cash flows in this industry are strong, coupled with gross margins close to 40%. Railroads have a greater efficiency than road transport - and higher fuel costs are likely to make railroads cheaper than shipping by road. Levered beta for this industry (with 40% D/K ratio) is 0.9.

Stock values in the transportation sector have in general weighed down by high fuel prices, and railroads may be a good buying opportunity for PE firms.

Name
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CSX Corp. Norfolk Southern Corp. Union Pacific Corp.
Industry Railroads Railroads Railroads Railroads Railroads
Current Share Price 69.82 41.02 31.61 43.05 83.80
Market Value $25,272 mil $21,851 mil $14,020 mil $18,711 mil $22,571 mil
Revenues $14,031 mil $6,507 mil $9,096 mil $9,107 mil $14,715 mil
Net Earnings $1,724 mil $1,684 mil $1,036 mil $1,343 mil $1,366 mil
5-yr. Sales Growth 8.24% 13.84% 1.41% 7.49% 2.89%
5-yr. Earnings Growth 15.23% 35.48% 25.08% 31.49% -0.53%
Net Profit Margin 12.30% 25.90% 11.40% 14.70% 9.30%
Short Interest 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.2
Est. EPS Growth Rate 15.3% 14.3% 16.1% 14.4% 15.6%
Forward P/E 14.1 14.2 14.4 12.9 15.0
PEG 0.92 1.00 0.89 0.89 0.96
Price/Sales 1.8 3.4 1.6 2.0 1.5
Price/Cash Flow 10.2 10.2 8.3 10.4 9.7
Price/Book 2.5 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.6
ROE 17.5% 22.2% 12.7% 14.2% 9.8%
ROA 5.7% 9.0% 4.3% 5.2% 3.8%
Dividend $1.00 $0.59 $0.40 $0.72 $1.20
Dividend Yield 1.43% 1.44% 1.27% 1.67% 1.43%
Payout Ratio 16.8% 16.6% 11.6% 18.1% 23.7%
Total Return (12-mos.) 18.2% 17.1% 37.7% 7.7% 18.5%
Total Return (3-yr.) 149.4% 143.4% 121.6% 140.4% 50.2%
Beta 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
% Off 52-wk. High -20.65% -19.84% -15.32% -25.40% -14.04%
% Above 52-wk. Low 26.07% 21.54% 48.06% 16.29% 25.28%
On Balance Volume Index 61 59 67 46 82

The resurgence of Java

The majority of new websites (Web 2.0) use the LAMP stack, and other popular development platforms are ASP .NET and more recently, Ruby on Rails. Has Java seen its heyday?

Amazon's EC2, Google's Web Toolkit and Sun's open sourcing of Java may finally make economically feasible for web-companies to develop in Java.

For a development platform to be successful among web startups, it should have
1. A good IDE,
2. A variety of hosting services
3. A talent pool of programmers
4. Free code-samples and ready to use open-source software that users can customize.


While ASP .net and LAMP meet all these criteria, Java has always been tough to adopt because there weren't any cheap hosting services for a bootstrapped company to use.

Thanks to Amazon, a good language can now be used for things other than enterprise middleware services.

Also, Google's Web Toolkit now makes it possible for developers to develop web UI's using Java, and then convert them to Javascript.

So, if I could host applications like Daffodil CRM in an Amazon Elastic Cloud, and get it customized and integrated with my Web 2.0 website (at $12/hour), use one free development platform to develop a website that anyone with a CS degree should be familiar with, using Java finally makes economic sense.

I expect Java to add some caffeine to Web 2.0

 

Is Google entering Salesforce’s backyard

Some products, like Google Sets, graduating from Google Labs may seem the esoteric. However, all these products fit a larger offering Google is building – a highly flexible set of application components with can be easily integrated into an application of your choice.

Applications or components include email, online calendars, spreadsheets, online document processing etc. But when combined together – these provide a significant productivity boost for customers. For instance, when I get a tracking number from an order I placed, Gmail automatically detects the string as a UPS tracking number and provides a link to check the status of the package. It is also able to detect a meeting request or an address and show me the appropriate links (like “Add to Calendar” or “View map”).
Gmail conversation threading and labels provide the ability to track chains of conversations. Also, Google Analytics provides a fantastic system to view Web leads and look at your sales-funnel, and you could get the features of a basic CRM for free with Google products. Granted that most of the products are still in Beta, but Salesforce has had some outages as well. One missing pieceGoogle Proxy authentication, which seems imminent, when available will make software development over Google Services easier and undermine some of Salesforce’s value proposition to ISVs.

Meanwhile, Salesforce has probably anticipated and is reacting to this strategic threat with AppExchange. Just as fries or soda are always easier to sell with the burger... by providing a platform with rich services, the AppExchange platform is helping ISV’s by reducing the friction in the sales and product development process, and increasing value of both the Salesforce platform and the ISV’s product to customers by providing a seamless interface. Of course, the markets segments each company is targeting currently are very different, with Google targeting individual and small business e-commerce companies, and Salesforce targeting the SMB and the enterprise marketplace. But with the projected high growth rates of both companies and not-so-high growth rates of the CRM market - competition is inevitable.

Passport 2.0?

One of the challenges facing Web 2.0 companies today is the friction due to required signups. You typically provide an email address and a password to create an account, and you get a confirmation email with an activation code. As a visitor to the website, this causes a significant amount of friction, and I looked into how we can eliminate this while ensuring that the website is able to provide features that will not be misused (for email or link spam)

Why do websites require accounts?

  1. To prevent misuse – Visitors without accounts can use the “email this article” feature to spam others. Alternatively, comment spam could be used to boost Pagerank.
  2. To keep track of visitors and their information – Websites could also do this with cookies, but users have the ability to delete them.
  3. To notify users of “Exciting new features” – This is a proven method of increasing web traffic.
  4. To protect private information a user may have entered or other transactional information.

All these, or most of these functions can be accomplished by having one company manage ID’s for multiple websites. Like the Google Account or Microsoft Passport earlier, a OneID would make it easier for web users to get access to a lot of features on a website without the webmaster having to worry about the potential misuse by anonymous users.

Symantec is reported to be exploring this opportunity, and Google may be coming up with an Account authentication proxy. Several blogs, including ZDNet, point to this imminent launch.

The feature will be particularly useful for Google because they can look at what other sites a user visits, and will be able to better train their search algorithms to display to the user what they were looking for without having to visit 10 websites to get this information.

Is this the case of Google copying Microsoft?

Consolidate or go for grid of cheap servers?

Most fortune-500 companies have already done some consolidation. The benefits of server consolidation have been huge - the tens or hundreds of servers, each with different patch levels and service contracts contributing to low utilizations have been replaced by a few high-end servers. Nicholas Carr, in his blog asks if the server industry will suffer as a result of higher CPU utilization (resulting either from virtualization or consolidation)?

SAP's Charles Zedlewski provides a good counterargument, why the server industry will be ok after all.

The real metrics that organizations should consider are
1. Costs per processing unit,
2. Volatility of computing demand.

In the long term, enterprises of the future will go with a limited number of highly consolidated servers running some virtualization software, yielding about 60%-70% in utilization, with additional computing power available on-demand to run complex statistical and marketing programs, provided by OEM vendors like Sun, IBM or other providers using generic hardware.

I wouldn't be too worried about any drastic reduction in computing demand, simply because firms would (hopefully) buy this additional lower cost processing capacity to make better business decisions. The only server manufacturers who would truly go away are server divisions or companies that make expensive, generic hardware (Dell, HP?).

Metric madness causes google searches to be no longer as relevant

The Google search algorithm is a popularity contest of sorts, and Google uses links to the site from other sites as a proxy to measure this intangible attribute.

How Google works

PageRank Technology: PageRank performs an objective measurement of the importance of web pages by solving an equation of more than 500 million variables and 2 billion terms. Instead of counting direct links, PageRank interprets a link from Page A to Page B as a vote for Page B by Page A. PageRank then assesses a page's importance by the number of votes it receives.

Consequently, people who want their sites to get a higher pagerank know exactly what to do - get reciprocal links, get links from the more well-known sites, or write poor quality blogs with every tenth or fifteenth phrase being the topic the webmaster wants to promote.

And thus, the metric is separated from the underlying attribute it strongly correlated to earlier. Google search is no longer as good as it used to be, because the motivation to link to other sites is not solely whether you like the other site's content.

So, why is Google still successful? Other search engines do not have the simple look and feel we have all grown so accustomed to...

Update: I hadn't realized that Nick Carr and the Wall Street Journal wrote about this issue on March 1.

Space and power - the drivers for hardware design

Once upon a time, hardware and software costs were a significant portion of a company's IT budget.

As costs of harware and software reduce, companies are more concerned about data-center costs, which are now a significant portion of IT budgets. Data-center costs are driven by
  • Land
  • Power costs for HVAC and computer equipment
  • Construction Costs
  • Cost of hardware
  • Security (from geological and geopolitical risks)
  • Provisioning and setup costs
  • Maintenance costs

Facility managers have increasingly started taking these factors into account when building a data-center. For instance, Google and others are building data-centers at Bend, Oregon where real-estate and power are cheap.

Interestingly, vendors too are realizing that if they reduce the cost of a unit of processing, customers will be more willing to pay a higher price for hardware. Sun's recent offering (Blackbox) is a step in this direction. By eliminating real-estate and buildout costs, Sun hopes that its customers will value Sun's offering higher than other commoditized solutions.

However, I am concerned. If the TCO for Sun Blackbox was really lower than a data-center, then wouldn't Sun have a irreplicable competitive advantage by offering utility computing? So why are they not offering a utility computing solution using Blackbox?

The Sun Grid solution, which is a flavor of utility computing offered by Sun, is far less flexible and significantly more expensive than Amazon's EC2. Amazon, with its EC2 offering, leapfrogs traditional IT vendors by offering utility computing in a "pay for what you use" model. IBM has been offering a version of utility computing to its clients (albeit with additional servers at the customer's data center - which they don't pay for until they use them).

Salesforce, with its AppExchange platform, is also offering complete applications and infrastructure packages for its customers. I agree with Nicholas Carr, that it is just a matter of time before utility computing will offer businesses low-cost IT on-demand. 

The IT eco-system

Here is a pictorial representation of the IT ecosystem I put together. I will use this as a basis for the next few posts.


SAP and Microsoft

Two software leaders SAP and Microsoft, are slowly reentering the On-demand marketplace. These two software giants have not targeted the early adopters in the Gartner Hype cycle, and usually have enter the field later than most other cutting edge ISVs. Consequently, they have used their deeper pockets and other resources to steadily erode marketshare of other incumbents in the field.

Also, while SAP has provided some limited resources to open source projects like SAPdb, and Microsoft may be forced to license its software in the EU, both companies have largely eschewed open-source and continue to rely on traditional software business models.

Both companies a strong partner program to complementors (ISVs, distributors, systems integrators and Value added resellers) significant incentives to partner.

Are they competitors or do they complement each other?

Currently, SAP and Microsoft products largely complement each other. SAP and Microsoft are also collaborating in Mendocino to integrate back-office ERP with front-office Microsoft Office products, possibly using .Net and NetWeaver.

However, Microsoft, with its newly renamed Dynamics products is targeting the small and medium business (SMB) ERP markets, the same market that SAP is increasingly focused on to increase its growth.

We will know in the next few months whether the Dynamics products start gaining traction in the marketplace or whether a the product requires a lot more than a new name to be successful.